Professional forecasters expect euro area inflation to remain close to the European Central Bank鈥檚 2% target over the coming years, according to the ECB鈥檚 Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2026.
Headline HICP inflation expectations were unchanged across all horizons, standing at 1.8% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028. Longer-term inflation expectations for 2030 remained stable at 2.0%. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was also unchanged at 2.0% across all forecast horizons.
Expectations for real GDP growth were largely stable, with forecasters revising the 2026 outlook slightly upward to 1.2%, from 1.1% in the previous survey. Growth expectations for 2027 remained unchanged at 1.4%, while growth in 2028 is seen at 1.3%. The upward revision for 2026 mainly reflects stronger-than-expected GDP data in the third quarter of 2025. Longer-term growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%.
Unemployment expectations were unchanged for 2026 and 2027, at 6.3% and 6.2% respectively. Forecasters slightly lowered their longer-term outlook, expecting the unemployment rate to fall to 6.1% in 2028 and remain at that level in 2030.
The survey was conducted between 7 and 12 January 2026 and received 62 responses from experts at financial and non-financial institutions across Europe. The results do not reflect the views of the ECB or its policy-making bodies. The ECB鈥檚 next staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 19 March 2026.
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